New Series, New Doctor

This is an unashamed Doctor Who post, and before I continue, let me state that this is just an opinion and I'm quite prepared to be proved utterly and totally wrong.  OK. Here we go...

Series 8 of Doctor Who starts exactly a month from today (23rd July 2014), and as is usual in such cases there is a ton of speculation, hyperbole, hype and hope in the on-line fan community.  Admittedly there's a lot for fans to be excited about - a new Doctor in Peter Capaldi, a new starting date (Autumn) and allegedly a full season of 13 episodes - but will any of these affect how many people actually watch?
 

To be honest, these are all fan concerns.  How will the general viewing public react to a new series, and a new Doctor?  Well probably not much differently to how they've been reacting since the series came back in 2005.  So I feel it's time to make some predictions.  How many people will watch the first episode of the new series of Doctor Who?

Looking back to 2005 when Series 1 started, here are the Final viewing figures for the opening story of each season, including the timeshift (that's the percentage of viewers who recorded the programme on the night, but watched it up to a week later).

Note I've ignored the 2009 Specials as they're not really representative of a "normal" season of Doctor Who.


New Season openers

Season 1    10.8 million (timeshift 8%) *New Doctor

Season 2    8.6 million (timeshift 7%)

Season 3    8.7 million (timeshift 6%)

Season 4    9.1 million (timeshift 8%)

Season 5    10.08 million (timeshift 20%) *New Doctor

Season 6     8.8 million (timeshift 26%)

Season 7     8.3 million (timeshift 23%)


The first thing to notice is that the number of viewers for a new season opener are remarkably consistent.  Between 2005 and 2013 they've been between 8.3 and 9.1 million.  

Ah but what about Seasons 1 and 5 you say?  Yes, and now we get to the second noticeable thing.  A new Doctor draws more viewers.  About 2 million more.

Season 2 was a bit unusual as David Tennant's 10th Doctor was actually introduced in the preceding Christmas Special, so the first story of Season 2 didn't have that "new Doctor" boost.  Let's look at New Doctor Story Final viewing figures then:


New Doctor Eps

Season 1    10.8 million

Season 2    9.8 million

Season 5    10.08 million

OK, not many to go on, but still fairly consistent with a 2 million increase on an ordinary season opener.

The third thing to notice is the timeshift.  The difference between people who watched on the night and who  saved it for later has gone up from around 8% in 2005 to 23% in 2013.  This is across the board for all TV, and is not peculiar to Doctor Who.  In fact the timeshift hasn't been steadily increasing since 2005.  Rather there was a dramatic jump in 2010, which was probably down to SKY providing all new subscribers (and upgrading existing customers) with a SKY+ box that included the facility to record.  The timeshift has only increased very slightly since then.

So can we make a prediction of Final Viewing Figures for the first story of Doctor Who Series 8 on August 23rd?

Well, as a standard new season opener I would expect it to be somewhere between 8 and 9 million.  Notice this has nothing to do with the time of year it is being broadcast (August during one of the UK's hottest summers).  That's what the timeshift is for.  Regardless of when a season of Doctor Who has started (Seasons 1-6 began in April, Season 7 in September) the opening episode always attracts the same amount of viewers.  In fact Seasons 6 and 7 are remarkably similar, considering they both start at opposite ends of the year.

However as a New Doctor opener I would also expect it to have 2 million more viewers. it would therefore likely be more around the 10 million mark. 


And the timeshift?  When the weather is warm there is often an increase in people who would rather stay out in the sun and record Doctor Who instead, so I'm going to predict a timeshift of about 26%.
 

Right.  So I'm going for an overnight of 7.82 million, a final of 9.85 and a timeshift of 26%.  And if I'm wrong...I predict the actual figures will be lower. 

Roll on August 23rd!